purse louis vuitton: 十一月 2013

2013年11月20日星期三

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The Obama campaign fundraising machine has debuted a new text message tool with encouraging results for the President’s bean counters.louis vuitton belts On Wednesday, the Obama campaign sent out an SMS message to cell phones and smart phones of tens of thousands of previous donors asking them to give more money. “Support Pres Obama in less than a minute,” the message read, “using our new secure system: just reply with the amount you want to give and we’ll charge your saved credit card.” There is nothing new about asking for money via text message, but the technology behind collecting the money was a first for a presidential campaign. All potential donors had to do to give more money was to type a number into their phone.gucci outlet online Write “25,” or “10″ and that amount of dollars was immediately drawn from their credit cards into the campaign’s coffers. For political pros, this sort of instant cell phone fundraising tool has long been sought, but not before been realized. The best known example of its potential was demonstrated after the Haiti earthquake, when a non-profit group, called the Mobile Giving Foundation, partnered with cell phone providers to allow people to instantly give by text message. Those donations were deducted from cellular phone bills.louis vuitton outlet online More than $30 million was raised in just a few days. But cell phone providers, and the Mobile Giving Foundation, have not been willing to let non-charitable organizations like political campaigns in on the same gravy train. The Obama campaign has effectively created a workaround, as I reported earlier this month. Anyone who gives even a few dollars to the Obama campaign is asked if they want to keep their credit cards on file to participate in what the campaign calls “Quick Donate.louis vuitton handbags for sale” This allows the Obama campaign to set up a sort of one-click version of campaign donation, much like Amazon allows return customers to buy books with a simple click of the mouse. If donors come back to the campaign again in the future, via the website, or email, or text message, donors do not have to reenter their credit card information. They need simply click a link. The donations are fully refundable, if there is buyer’s remorse.chanel handbags for sale A person familiar with Wednesday’s ask said that the response rate was more than 20 times greater than any text message solicitation Obama has sent out before. And the reason is simple: Even with an iPhone, it remains an arduous hassle to enter all the information that is typically required to buy anything online with a credit card. The real power of this tool will not be realized for months. Campaign officials hope to be able to return to donors in key moments of emotional excitement to trigger the campaign finance equivalent of an impulse buy.fake louis vuitton shoes One of the Obama campaign’s best fundraising days in 2008, for instance, came right after Sarah Palin’s convention speech. All of those people had to go to a website, almost all with a desktop or laptop computer, and go through the laborious process of entering their credit card information. Now they will only need to type a couple of digits into their cellular phone. Partisans can vent their outrage or enthusiasm by simply typing one number into their phone.louis vuitton neverfull
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After three days of oral arguments and intense speculation in the press, the Supreme Court is said to be holding an initial vote Friday, March 30, on the fate of President Obama’s landmark health reform law.chanel handbags for sale While conventional wisdom has swung against the high court’s upholding the law, a close reading of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s questioning and conversations with his former clerks suggests that a week of breathless coverage has overstated the likelihood of that happening. It is true that Solicitor General Don Verrilli had a bad day on Tuesday. It is also true that the conservative Justices on the Supreme Court asked hard questions of the government and easier questions of the law??s opponents. But Verrilli??s performance and the tone of the conservatives’ questions are vastly less important to whether Obamacare survives than many seem to think.louis vuitton belts (PHOTOS:?Supreme Court Health Care Protests) The individual mandate and Obamacare will sink or swim on one simple judgment: whether uninsured Americans are in the health insurance market. Everyone agrees that Congress can force the uninsured to buy health insurance if they are in that market. Michael Carvin, arguing for the suing small-business group, said Tuesday, ??Yes, when you’ve entered the marketplace, [Congress] can impose all sorts of restrictions on you.?? And Paul Clement, arguing for the suing states, agreed that a patient who shows up at an emergency room can be forced to buy insurance on the spot before receiving care.louis vuitton neverfull But are those same uninsured people ??in the marketplace?? before they get sick? What about when they are young and healthy? On that question, Justice Anthony Kennedy and Chief Justice John Roberts were more equivocal than you might think. ??[Kennedy] sounded conflicted,?? says his former Supreme Court clerk, George Washington University law professor Orin Kerr. ??I??m not sure which way he??ll come out.?? The best guide for navigating the question of whether the uninsured are in the health insurance market remains the opinion (.louis vuitton replicapdf) of Jeffrey Sutton, the former clerk of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia. Sutton ruled in favor of the law in the Sixth Circuit last June, and many of the questions asked this week by both sides of the court were grappling with and responding to the issues Sutton raised. (MORE: Why Obamacare Supporters Are Getting So Nervous) Sutton said it seemed intuitive that Congress can’t force people to buy something they don’t want. But he then showed that the courts have already given Congress that power in other areas, like taxation.fake gucci shoes He further argued that the health insurance market is in some ways unique, because everyone will be in it at some point. Sutton concluded that “sometimes an intuition is just an intuition” and that the mandate is well within Congress’s power under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution. Looking at Kennedy’s and Roberts’ questions, it’s not clear to me they disagree with Sutton. They spent a fair amount of time testing Verrilli’s (poorly expressed) limiting principles and testing the idea that Congress??s power under the Commerce Clause might be unchecked.gucci outlet online But Kennedy agreed on Tuesday with Sutton that Congress may have the power elsewhere: Let’s assume that it could use the tax power to raise revenue and to just have a national health service, single payer. How does that factor into our analysis? In one sense, it can be argued that this is what the government is doing. It ought to be honest about the power that it’s using and use the correct power. On the other hand, it means that since the court can do it anyway ?? Congress can do it anyway ?? we give a certain amount of latitude.chanel handbags for sale I’m not sure which the way the argument goes. Furthermore, much has been read into Kennedy??s statement that forcing individuals to buy health insurance changes the relationship between the individual and the government in a fundamental way, and that moment showed that Kennedy takes Sutton??s ??intuitive?? concern seriously. But the full exchange shows that both he and Roberts are looking at how that issue is managed in the law. JUSTICE KENNEDY: … Here the government is saying that the federal government has a duty to tell the individual citizen that it must act, and that is different from what we have in previous cases, and that changes the relationship of the federal government to the individual in a very fundamental way.louis vuitton outlet online VERRILLI: I don’t think so, Justice Kennedy, because it is predicated on the participation of these individuals in the market for health care services. Now, it happens to be that this is a market in which, aside from the groups that the statute excludes, virtually everybody participates. But it is a regulation of their participation in that market. CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Well, but it’s critical how you define the market …?You cannot say that everybody is going to participate in the substance-use-treatment market, and yet you require people to purchase insurance coverage for that.chanel outlet VERRILLI: Congress has got ?? Congress is enacting economic regulation here. It has latitude to define essential ?? the attributes of essential coverage. That doesn’t ?? that doesn’t seem to me to implicate the question of whether Congress is engaging in economic regulation and solving an economic problem here, and that is what Congress is doing. Does all this mean Obamacare will survive? Not at all.louis vuitton backpack for sale Another Kennedy clerk, who is occasionally politically active but whose judgment has been rock solid over the years, tells me on background, ??I would say that he’s going to vote to overturn the entire bill. His questioning strongly suggested that, and it’s rare that he votes differently than he appears to lean during oral argument.? He’s fairly straightforward in that regard.? I think the bill goes down in its entirety 5-4.replica gucci shoes?? (MORE: Can Health Reform Stand Without a Mandate?) Others say the arguments have been overread but that they are still indicative of some hostility to the mandate. Says Tom Goldstein, the dean of court watchers and a prolific member of the Supreme Court bar: ??The point isn’t just that they asked the questions of the government but that they didn’t press the other side nearly as hard.? I do not think it is clear that the government will lose.? And I don’t think the oral arguments will be significant to the outcome.handbags louis vuitton? But I do think that it is fair to say that they went poorly for the government.?? Will Obamacare survive? To my eyes, looking past the theatrics at the court this week, the law’s constitutionality remains very much in play.
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That seems to be the trend among the latest round of Establishment Republicans to back Romney.chanel outlet “I do think it??s time for the party to get behind Gov. Romney,” George H.W. Bush said.louis vuitton backpack for sale His son Jeb used the same words: “It is time to get behind the nominee.” In multiple interviews, Marco Rubio has riffed along the same lines, with a conspicuous absence of effusive praise: “I think it’s evidently and increasingly clear that Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee.” You might read these statements as examples of lukewarm sentiment for the candidate–Dave Weigel compares them to Ted Kennedy’s swooning endorsement of Obama at the height of the epic 2008 Democratic primary–but I’m not sure that’s entirely fair. There is a real and legitimate concern among Republicans that in recent years, their party has at times lost focus on winning general elections (see Christine O’Donnell).replica gucci shoes The Establishment endorsers’ target audience–Republicans who want to see the primary play out a bit longer–is not one that needs to be swept off its feet. It’s not even one that needs to be convinced Romney should win the nomination. The goal is to show that Romney has already won it, and that it’s time to move on to taking down Obama. The press would probably ascribe those motivations to these endorsements either way, but I see no reason Establishment Republicans shouldn’t be coming out and saying it to begin with.louis vuitton speedy
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This Washington Post story on Mitt Romney’s plans to run hard against Barack Obama on foreign policy doesn’t persuade me that Romney has any especially clever new ideas on that front.louis vuitton backpack for sale We already know that Romney will hammer Obama for pressuring Israel over settlements and its borders (although Romney has misled about Obama’s position on the latter). Those attacks could peel away some Jewish and pro-Israel? voters otherwise inclined to support Obama, but that pool of voters may be relatively small. We also know that Romney is gung-ho about demonizing Russia and calling Obama soft on Putin. But on the list of issues the American voter cares about, Russia–and even related matters, like missile defense–might not crack the top twenty.fake ugg boots China? That’s something voters care quite a lot about. And Romney, free like all White House challengers to talk macho without fear of starting a trade war, has been on that case from the start. But Obama, too, is getting tougher on China. (Why, I even suspect that Obama has whispered to some Chinese leader or another, away from a hot mic, that to prepare for some sharper rhetoric in the next few months and not to worry too much about it.gucci handbag for sale) Iraq and Afghanistan? Americans seem barely to care about the former, alas. The latter is tricky for everyone involved. If Obama speeds up withdrawal, Romney can invoke the generals and attack him for it. But then Romney will be very much afoul of public opinion.louis vuitton shoes replica A big wild card here is Iran. But, as with Afghanistan, it’s not clear where Romney finds his opening. Polls show public support for continued sanctions and attempted diplomacy with Tehran, which is Obama’s current policy. Romney can try to out-hawk Obama, but the public is divided at best about taking military action.replica chanel shoes Meanwhile Obama can tout his success in Libya, drone strikes in Pakistan and the under-appreciated absence of a successful terrorist attack on U.S. soil since he was sworn in. Not to mention one of the best applause lines of all time: “Osama bin Laden is dead.louis vuitton belts” Romney has his work cut out for him.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Mitt Romney’s presidential candidacy, raised $7 million in January, topping off its deep reservoir of funds and allowing the group to flood media markets from Sioux City to Sarasota with some $14 million in advertising.fake uggs Its FEC disclosure on Monday revealed that its extensive effort to elevate Romney and bury the competition relied on a set of donors that runs the gamut from famous heirs and CEOs to the most opaque and controversial kind of corporate interests. Unlike its competitors, Restore Our Future doesn??t have a lone high-profile benefactor, like Newt Gingrich has in Sheldon Adelson or Rick Santorum has in Foster Friess. But Romney??s super PAC doesn??t lack for big-name individual donors: Hewlett-Packard CEO and former California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman gave $100,000 in January, as did Alice and Jim Walton of the Walmart fortune. The Marriott brothers, J.louis vuitton outlet onlineW. and Richard, each gave $250,000. (Romney once sat on the company’s board, and his given name Willard was taken from the late John Willard Marriott Sr., the hotel chain??s founder.louis vuitton shoes replica) Oklahoma mine mogul Joseph Craft gave $500,000, as did hedge funder Bruce Kovner and David Lisonbee, who stared the Utah vitamin company 4Life Research. (MORE: Super PACs, the Great Democratizers) In this sense, the disclosure reflects a broader post-Citizens United development. Campaign finance-reform advocates have warned that unlimited donations from corporations, newly empowered to give limitless sums, would have a corrupting influence on American democracy. In many ways, their worst fears have not materialized: the overwhelming majority of donations to super PACs disclosed so far have come from a new class of celebrity super-donor.handbags louis vuitton This is certainly the case for Romney. Of 25 six-figure donations made to Restore Our Future in January, only two of those came from corporations: $100,000 from the Larry H. Miller Group, which bears the name of the late founder, a Salt Lake City businessman and sports-team owner whose family maintains control of his company; and Select Management Resources, a limited liability corporation registered in Alpharetta, Georgia. The former reflects a trend among corporate donors: a well-known company connected to a well-known executive, in many cases one who has already given to Romney’s presidential campaign directly.fake louis vuitton shoes The latter represents a more mysterious group of contributors that could prove controversial for Romney in the long term. Donations from limited liability corporations like Select Management Resources comprise a small fraction of total super PAC gifts, but they come from the kind of organizations that campaign finance reform advocates worry about: difficult to track companies, sometimes with ties to special interests. Last April, a newly registered corporation called W Spann LLC gave $1 million to Restore Our Future, only to dissolve a few weeks later. After a month of scrutiny, Ed Conard, a former managing director of the Romney-founded private equity firm Bain Capital, came forward as the source of the funds.fake chanel shoes Another entity, F8 LLC, also gave $1 million. It was created by a lawyer with ties to Steve Lund, the former CEO of Nu Skin cosmetics, who had given another $1 million through a company called Eli Publishing Inc. The New York Times tracked $250,000 from Paumanok Partners LLC back to William Laverack Jr., an investor and major Romney supporter.cheap gucci belts (MORE: What Will Mitt Romney Talk About if the Economy Gets Better?) The biggest LLC checks to Restore Our Future in January came from entities close to one industry: short-term lenders. Select Management Resources LLC, the aforementioned $100,000-donor, is owned by Rod Aycox, the president of LoanMax, a nationwide auto-title lender. Aycox has given heavily to politicians of both parties, including Barack Obama, in the past. ?RTTTA LLC, a limited liability corporation based in Provo, Utah, that gave $75,000 to Restore Our Future, is registered with J.louis vuitton handbags for sale Todd Rawle, an executive at payday lender Check City and a Romney donor. Another $25,000 check came from REBS Inc., a company based in Las Vegas that shares an address with a Check City store. REBS Inc.fake gucci shoes’s registered agent is Yahi Peak LLC, which is also the registered agent for Tosh Inc., Check City’s parent company. These donations make sense. Lenders like LoanMax and Check City top the list of regulation targets for Obama’s new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau , and Select Management Resources spent $600,000 lobbying on consumer finance issues in 2010, the year the legislation that created the CFPB was passed.gucci handbag for sale (Romney has pledged to repeal the law.) They’re also the kind of donations that can be politically tricky if Democrats cast Romney as indebted to lenders accused by consumer advocates of exploiting the poor with massive interest rates. In a 2005 report on how auto title lending is “Driving Borrowers to Financial Ruin,” the Center for Responsible Lending and the Consumer Federation of America noted: As they have grown in size and number, title lenders have made substantial campaign contributions and have succeeded in forwarding their legislative agenda in a number of states. Title lending giant Rod Aycox, a former partner in Title Loans of America and the creator of Select Management Resources, has contributed to political campaigns throughout the country and was reportedly the largest individual contributor in the 1998 Tennessee state elections.gucci outlet online The Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently reported that Mr. Aycox, his companies, and his close relatives had donated over $300,000 to 130 state and federal candidates and political committees in 10 states since the year 2000. Other corporate contributors to Restore Our Future include companies with more apparent ties to the usual mix of power players who fill campaign coffers in each party every election cycle. (MORE: Attack of the Super PACs!) One $50,000 check came from Buena Vista Investments LLC, a Seattle company registered to hotelier Gordon Sondland, a major Republican donor who served as a bundler for John McCain in 2008.louis vuitton outlet online JTC Holdings LLC, a California corporation registered with real estate executive Justin Chang, an active Republican donor who’s given to Romney and his PAC in the past, donated $20,000. Most corporate donors were not LLCs. United Refining, an oil company whose chairman and CEO John Catsimatidis has donated to both Democrats and Republicans, gave $25,000. Manchester Financial Group, a San Diego company headed by Doug Manchester, a hotelier and developer who donated money to gather signatures for a gay marriage ban in California, donated $25,000 as well.louis vuitton outlet online So did Clinical Medical Services, Inc., a medical equipment provider affiliated with Raul Rodriguez, a donor to the Romney campaign. Ryan Enterprises Group, an investment firm founded by Chicago businessman Pat Ryan, a longtime political donor who threw George W. Bush a fundraiser at his home in 2004 and has also given directly to Romney this cycle, kicked in $25,000 too, as did Suffolk Construction Company, a contractor based in Massachusetts.louis vuitton neverfull Its CEO, John Fish, raised funds for Romney in 2007, only to switch allegiances to Obama after Romney dropped out. It??s possible that these well-established donors are beginning to shift ?political giving to their primary companies, or others within the corporations might be behind these contributions. Some may prefer to make such gifts through LLCs to secure an extra layer of distance. Or not.fake gucci shoes We don??t know.? Even though corporate donations account for a small slice of super PAC funds, that uncertainty is part of the post-Citizens United landscape.
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The White House is set to unveil a tax reform plan that would reduce the corporate rate to 28%, remaining near revenue neutral.fake louis vuitton shoes Answering conservatives’ calls, Romney will release a new “bolder” tax proposal this week. The season finale of GOP Bachelor is tonight. Who will Republicans end up marrying? Romney noses ahead within the margin of error of one Michigan poll. Ron Paul is helping him.louis vuitton outlet online As a group, endorsements are important; individual governors not so much. Per Drudge, Santorum once said Satan was after America. “As you cut spending you’ll slow down the economy,” Romney says in a classic Kinsleyian gaffe. Soaring gas prices are becoming an issue again despite the fact that Presidents can’t do much about it.cheap gucci belts Obama starts the year off 2008 fundraising pace. He’s singing again. And 25 photos of Romney looking normal.
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The current narrative of the presidential campaign revolves around Mitt Romney’s embarrassing weakness, and the question of what panicked GOP elders will do if Rick Santorum, whose electability they question, appears headed for the nomination.louis vuitton handbags for sale In a strange fashion that only makes sense in presidential politics, this has become a useful place for Romney to be. After his sweep of the three February 7 contests, Santorum opened up a lead on Romney in Michigan, which votes on Tuesday, and where a Romney loss would be humiliating given his personal ties to the state. Santorum also quickly narrowed Romney’s advantage in Arizona, which will vote the same day. But in the days after Feb.fake louis vuitton 7, Santorum enjoyed the equivalent of uncontested air supremacy. Romney hadn’t kicked off an ad campaign (not a major one, at least) in either state, but Republicans were inundated with glowing coverage of Santorum the conqueror. The result wasn’t terribly surprising: Romney’s numbers fell in both states;? Santorum actually claimed a lead in some Michigan polling. Suddenly the Romney-is-doomed storyline came into view.louis vuitton belts After all, the early March primary calendar, heavy with Southern states, plus industrial Ohio where Romney looks weak, doesn’t offer many quick rebound opportunities for Romney should he stagger bleeding from Michigan and Arizona. (MORE:?Among Romney Super PAC??s Corporate Donors, Big Names Not All Easy to Spot) But the Romney doomsday talk took root before Romney began counterattacking on the TV airwaves, leveraging his greatest advantage–money–against Santorum. And look what’s happening. Two recent polls show the Arizona margin widening back to comfortable margins.replica louis vuitton And Romney looks to have caught up with Santorum in Michigan. (Other factors beyond advertising might be at work here, including a few days’ coverage of Santorum’s opinions about Satan and the like.) It’s now just as easy to imagine Romney wins in both states which, compared to his extremely low expectations, suddenly do make him look like a “comeback kid,” producing loads of positive free media around the country, including in the March 6 Super Tuesday states where he needs a boost. The big danger for Romney: It might be happening too soon! There’s still time for expectations to rise again, and for Romney to blow it with, say, another gaffe.louis vuitton handbags for sale But at the moment the trendlines seem headed in the right direction, and it may be that rumors of Romney’s demise will prove greatly exaggerated.
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President Barack Obama upped the ante in his vocal contest with Mitt Romney last night during a taping of the PBS show, ??In Performance at the White House.fake louis vuitton?? The show featured some huge names, including Buddy Guy, B. B. King, Mick Jagger and Jeff Beck. As Obama prepared to leave the concert, the assembled stars played the first bars of ??Sweet Home Chicago??, and Guy teasingly told Obama he needed to continue what he started when he sang Al Green at the Apollo theater.fake ugg boots Obama resisted (a little), then took the mic and did a creditable job on the opening lines: Personally, I never expected in my lifetime to see a U.S. President engage in a duet, however brief, with B. B.louis vuitton speedy King, and not cringe. So Obama gets points for that. That said, despite the criticism, I think Mitt Romney deserves some credit for his effort last month in Florida: True, he missed the high notes, but who doesn??t. And he has a fine voice.louis vuitton shoes replica Most important, his choice of songs is excellent. The tune is easy and clean, much preferable to jumpy, melodramatic melody of the Star Spangled Banner, which started life as a drinking tune for the Anacreontic Society. And if you haven??t read the lyrics to America the Beautiful recently, you??ll find them an infinitely more enlightened reflection of the American spirit than Francis Scott Key??s fearful, question-mark-riddled effort, which is our National Anthem thanks in part to a collaboration between those American cultural titans, John Philip Sousa and President Herbert Hoover. Compare: O say can you see, by the dawn??s early light, What so proudly we hail??d at the twilight??s last gleaming, Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight O??er the ramparts we watch??d were so gallantly streaming? And the rocket??s red glare, the bombs bursting in air, Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there, O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave O??er the land of the free and the home of the brave? With Romney??s choice: O beautiful for spacious skies, For amber waves of grain, For purple mountain majesties Above the fruited plain! America! America! God shed His grace on thee, And crown thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea! O beautiful for pilgrim feet Whose stern impassion’d stress A thoroughfare for freedom beat Across the wilderness America! America! God mend thine ev’ry flaw, Confirm thy soul in self-control, Thy liberty in law.cheap gucci belts O beautiful for heroes prov’d In liberating strife, Who more than self their country lov’d, And mercy more than life. America! America! May God thy gold refine Till all success be nobleness, And ev’ry gain divine. O beautiful for patriot dream That sees beyond the years Thine alabaster cities gleam Undimmed by human tears. America! America! God shed His grace on thee, And crown thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea.chanel handbags for sale Obama started the contest with his Apollo theater ad lib, precipitating what some might see as a pro-America base-play by Romney in response.
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2013年11月13日星期三

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Rush Limbaugh is having a bad day.gucci handbag for sale His radio sponsors are jumping ship. Sandra Fluke refused to accept his apology. Republicans are finally piping up with more fulsome condemnations. Jim Poniewozik raises the most important question here: Has Limbaugh reached an Imus-like tipping point, where his power and audience will be severely curtailed? It certainly is a result devoutly to be wished.chanel handbags for sale Rush is a nihilist demagogue who has had a negative impact on American democracy, and particularly on the Republican Party. But I wonder. Imus’s act was getting old when his obnoxious comments about the Rutgers women’s basketball team went viral; his audience was devoted, and political, but it was also heterodox, consisting of both liberals and conservatives. Rush’s audience, by contrast, is an ideological cult.chanel handbags for sale It has a primal coherence. It loves the wack stuff Limbaugh says, and will probably love it even more now that the Liberal Eastern Establishment advertisers have called in their chits. This attack on his integrity is obviously part of the vast Liberal Socialist Islamic Terrorist conspiracy. What other explanation can there be? I suspect El Rushbo is going nowhere, unfortunately.gucci outlet online But it sure is fun to watch him grovel.
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Roughly around this time in 2008, a bunch of celebrities got together to put the words of an Obama campaign speech to music.fake ugg boots The result, four and a half minutes of doe-eyed tribute from will.i.am, Scarlett Johansson et al., was a viral hit on YouTube.handbags louis vuitton “Yes We Can” captured the kind of vague hope-iness that defined Obama’s pop image at the time. And even though his policies weren’t very different from Hillary Clinton’s, the half-term Senator entered the general election a transformational figure in the eyes of many casual political observers. Even the late night send-ups were all about how much people (and the press) loved Obama. John McCain later tried to turn this against him with the famous Paris Hilton ad, but it’s hard to argue that Obama’s celebrity was a handicap.louis vuitton belts Four years later and Mitt Romney’s place in pop culture is beginning to look like just that. It might come as a surprise to anyone who’s currently reading this, but most Americans don’t follow presidential primaries very closely. There’s a general awareness sure, but only the diehards tune in to daily minutiae in March. That’s not to say the early action has no effect–the latest NBC/WSJ poll definitely shows an American public that’s downwind of some kind of unpleasant primary odor: 69% used a negative phrase to describe the contest.fake uggs But not too many day-to-day specifics have made it into mainstream consciousness just yet. Unfortunately for Romney, the caricature of him as an aloof corporatist really has. Saturday Night Live just opened with a skit in which Romney says “I’m happier than a poor man eating a can of beans from a dumpster.?? Mad Magazine is running a bit called “Who Said It? Mitt Romney or Mr.louis vuitton neverfull Burns,” the miserly finger-tenting nuclear baron from The Simpsons. This isn’t the stuff that swings elections, but it’s not helpful. In the NBC/WSJ poll, Romney’s current favorable/unfavorable rating of 28%/39% is worse than John McCain’s, John Kerry’s and Bob Dole’s at similar points in recent presidential primaries. And Romney’s string of wealth gaffes have clearly done more than earn him clucking headlines in Politico.replica louis vuitton It’s entered America’s bloodstream. People laugh about it because they know about it. And at this early point, it risks being one of the few things that some Americans know him for.
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I spoke to Rick Santorum by phone for a few minutes on Monday afternoon as he rode across Ohio on the eve of tomorrow’s Super Tuesday extravaganza.louis vuitton outlet online The interview mostly covered ground for a piece you can read in the upcoming issue of TIME. But I did ask him about something in the news this week–namely, John McCain’s speech calling for U.S. air strikes against Syrian regime forces.fake uggs On Sunday, Mitt Romney took a more restrained line, telling an audience in Georgia that “I’m not anxious to employ military action. Syria is a far more serious military defender than was Libya.” While noting that he was not familiar with the details of McCain’s speech and therefore could only speak in the abstract, Santorum struck a more hawkish tone. First he emphasized his view that President Obama, having called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, ought to take stronger action to make good on those words.louis vuitton handbags for sale “That’s not what Presidents do, they don’t pick sides and cheerlead,” Santorum said. ‘When the United States says, ‘This guy should go,’ then the expectation is that the United States will stand behind limited and reasonable efforts to do so.” Santorum reiterated his opinion that the U.S.louis vuitton handbags for sale should help to “arm and supply” the Syrian rebels. (Our current issue features a good point-counterpoint on how best to help the Syrian opposition.) But Santorum also did not reject the notion of bombing Assad’s army. “I would say that would certainly be one of the things I would consider,” he told me.louis vuitton handbags for sale Is bombing Syria an issue that will tip Ohio in tomorrow’s voting? Probably not. I’m not even sure flirting with air strikes helps Santorum among conservative voters in general, who are weary of foreign adventures and were never particularly excited about the U.S. intervention in Libya.louis vuitton handbags for sale It’ll be interesting to see whether Santorum sticks to this line in the coming days, as Washington reacts to the gauntlet McCain has thrown down.
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If you let your mind wander back many news cycles, all the way to the halcyon days of early last week, the Republican race was a muddle.gucci handbag for sale Mitt Romney was scrabbling furiously to fend off Rick Santorum in Michigan. Even if Romney sidestepped disaster, trouble lurked on Super Tuesday. Santorum boasted big leads in arch-conservative Oklahoma, Evangelical Tennessee, and blue-collar Ohio, none of which matched Romney’s strengths. Newt Gingrich would grab his own home state of Georgia, the night’s largest prize.louis vuitton replica And Ron Paul was positioned to siphon delegates in low-turnout caucus states like Alaska and North Dakota. Romney was the pace-setter, and would be even if Super Tuesday broke badly. But his support base, tepid in the best of times, seemed to be attenuating. Party leaders braced for a long slog while warning of the damage it would inflict on the Republican brand.gucci outlet online? A week makes all the difference in the media narrative — and very little in the pecking order. Super Tuesday, a coast-to-coast flurry of democracy with 10 states and 437 delegates at stake, is supposed to be one of the inflection points of the Republican nominating fight. Instead, it is likely to produce a split decision that resurrects the old conventional wisdom by reaffirming Romney, the best-funded and best-organized candidate, as the inevitable nominee once more. (PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.handbags louis vuitton 25-March 2) Romney rolls into Super Tuesday on the heels of five conservative victories that have sapped any semblance of momentum Santorum once had. To be sure, Romney will take his lumps Tuesday night. Gingrich remains the solid favorite for the bulk of Georgia’s 76 delegates, Santorum is headed for a win in Oklahoma and possibly Tennessee, while Paul has a shot at grabbing his first statewide win in Alaska or North Dakota. (Neither state has been polled.louis vuitton belts) But Romney is gaining ground across the board. Santorum’s double-digit lead in Ohio has vanished; surveys suggest the bellwether state is a true toss-up, with Romney clinging to margin-of-error leads in three of five polls released on Monday. The former Massachusetts governor has chipped away at Santorum’s advantage in Tennessee as well, edging to within the margin of error. A win in either the Rust Belt bellwether or the Evangelical redoubt would vault Romney over the expectations bar.louis vuitton neverfull But even if the four Republican rivals divvy up the spoils, Romney is poised to win the night. The arcane delegate-selection process works to his benefit Tuesday, while his rivals will be hamstrung by their past haplessness. With Gingrich and Santorum unable to get on the ballot in Virginia, Romney has a shot at grabbing all of its 46 delegates, 33 of which are winner-take-all by congressional district. Santorum’s feckless organization has also apparently left him ineligible for 18 of Ohio’s 63 bound delegates, including some from his strongholds.louis vuitton belts Meanwhile, the strictures governing delegate allocation in Massachusetts and Vermont — New England states where Romney is almost certain to win — are favorable to Romney, while proportional allocation in the big Southern states of Tennessee and Georgia will hold down the winner’s margins. As a result, Romney is nearly certain to pad his delegate lead even if he drops the majority of Super Tuesday states. Political handicapper Nate Silver projects him to capture 224 delegates, 51% of the overall tally, with Gingrich nabbing 20% and Santorum just 17%. (MORE: Among Super Tuesday??s 10 Contests, One Crucial Test) Romney’s hope, of course, is to snag a road win in Tennessee or Ohio, and the triumphant Election Night tableau that comes with it.louis vuitton handbags for sale Either way, the math is on his side.?No, Romney will not lock up the nomination on Super Tuesday. Yes, his rivals will soldier on, clinging to scraps of hope, as a primary marked by internecine warfare continues to batter their favorability numbers. (??We??re winning,?? Santorum optimistically told ABC News.louis vuitton speedy ??Whether we end up with the most votes or not, we??re winning.??) Even if Super Tuesday doesn’t deliver Romney the kind of kill shot that would end the race, it will tighten Romney’s grip on the race by taking him that much closer to the 1,144 delegates required to sew up the nomination. Which is the only measure that matters.
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2013年11月9日星期六

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